Can a Tarot Card Reading Unmask an Unfaithful Lover

One of the most dramatic reversals in Federal Reserve policymaking has been the targeting of monetary policy towards financial stability. In 1923, for example, the Federal Reserve's Annual Report officially announced that the goal of monetary policy was the avoidance of speculative lending, which was thought to lead to inflation and crisis. By contrast, in 2002 there was broad agreement at the Fed with economist Ben Bernanke's view that monetary policy should be aimed exclusively at macroeconomic goals while financial stability should be ensured by regulatory means instead. In this paper the author explains when this reversal occurred and he sheds some light on why it did. He shows that two principles in 1923—the discouraging of speculative lending by commercial banks, and the desire to meet the credit needs of business—remained important in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) deliberations until the mid-1960's. After this, the FOMC spent less time discussing the composition of bank loans. Overall, as the author argues, an unwillingness to devote monetary policy to financial stability may well make financial crises more likely. This paper may thus contribute to the understanding of the ultimate sources of the financial crisis of 2007. Read More

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